Sellers to Dominate Under 1775, Awaits US Data
- Gold price remains under bearish pressure amid broad USD rally.
- FOMC led losses may likely sustain next week as the US dollar may continue to find traction.
- US Core PCE and GDP data are the key events to watch next week.
The gold price weekly forecast remains largely dependent on the US dollar and somewhat on the risk sentiment. Overall, the gold price doesn’t yet look out of wood.
Fundamental analysis: US yields and FOMC to impact
The price of gold rebounded on Monday and Tuesday after declining the previous week. Despite reaching its highest level since last Thursday’s sharp drop at $ 1,787 on Wednesday, the XAU/USD pair lost momentum as the dollar rallied amid Hawkish FOMC policy predictions.
Yields on US Treasury bonds increased in the second half of the week, putting downward pressure on gold. The yellow metal fell to a multi-week low of $1,713 on Thursday, followed by a technical rebound to close around $1,750 on Friday.
Early this week, market participants focused on safe assets due to fear of Evergrande turning into a global crisis. The demand for gold was unaffected by the US dollar’s dominance over its risk-averse competitors. In an apparent attempt to flee to safety, the S&P 500 lost 1.7% on Monday.
Following the FOMC’s monetary policy meeting in September, the target range for federal funds remained unchanged at 0% – 0.25%. If the Fed’s plans for employment and inflation remain on track, asset purchases may need to be curtailed soon, the Fed noted in its policy statement.
The initial reaction to the release was that the delay in shortening the schedule caused the US dollar to weaken. Based on a revised forecast summary, nine policymakers now expect a rate hike in 2022 versus seven in June.
Key events for gold next week
On Monday, the US will publish its economic summary which will include durable goods orders for August. The data alone is unlikely to cause a significant market reaction. Data on consumer confidence will be released by the Conference Board on Tuesday.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its final figure for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the second quarter on Thursday. The Department of Labor will also publish its weekly jobless claim figures as well.
In addition to the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data on Friday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), will also be scrutinized for new signs of momentum.
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Gold weekly technical analysis: Bears to pounce $1,700
Gold price remains in hot waters as the key moving averages 20, 50, 100 and 200 are lying one above another. The volume of the last two days is increasing with the decline in prices which is a strong bearish signal. As long as the price remains below $1,775, we may likely see a deep correction towards the $1,700 round figure ahead of $1,663, swing low of Aug 09.
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