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Upbeat Aus Data Oversight by COVID, Ahead of NFP


  • AUD/USD slides on the day amid COVID worries.
  • The overnight rise was seen in the Aussie as U.S. stocks picked momentum.
  • The trade balance data came better than expected, lending support to the pair.

The AUD/USD price analysis suggests a mildly bullish picture. Although the data is positive, the rise in COVID cases hampers the bulls to an extent.

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7359, down 0.05% at the time of writing on Thursday.

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Stock market traders bought U.S. stock overnight, lifting the risk-sensitive Aussie dollar against the U.S. dollar. As a result, the AUD/USD exchange rate reached its highest level since Aug. 13. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 index finished 0.19% higher. The Australian dollar benefited from the general decline in the U.S. dollar. In addition, Australia’s GDP grew faster than expected in the second quarter, adding further momentum to the currency pair.

Australia’s July trade surplus surpassed the market consensus of 10.2 billion and the previous figure of 10.496 billion to 12.117 billion. The details of imports and exports have also improved from 1.0% and 4.0% to 3.3% and 4.8%, respectively. Furthermore, housing investment lending surpassed 0.7% in June, compared to 1.8% in July.

Despite good data, the AUD/USD pair remains under pressure due to a failure in the Covid case recovery. In addition, the ABC reports, after viral infections rose the most in Australia on Wednesday, with 1,466 cases recorded. As a result of the increased cases, the two states with the most populations, New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria, were also cited in the news.

A second-quarter report for New Zealand’s trading conditions was released today. Compared to the first quarter, exports rose 8.3%, compared to -0.8%. A 4.8% decrease in import prices was below the estimate of 1.8% and above the previous period -0.8%. The New Zealand business confidence index for August fell to -14.2. There hasn’t been a drop like this since October 2020. There appears to be a causal relationship between the recent blockages in Oakland and the decline in confidence.

According to the EIA, a large increase in U.S. oil inventories caused oil indicators to lose gains in the early session. In addition, a group of oil-exporting nations, collectively known as OPEC +, has decided to increase monthly production by 400,000 barrels. In the short term, this decision may lead to some price pressure, especially in the event of a global increase in COVID infections.

The market participants are cautious ahead of the US NFP report, which is expected to decline the new jobs. However, the unemployment rate is also expected to slide, which may support Greenback.

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AUD/USD price technical analysis: Volume supporting bulls

AUD/USD 4-hour price chart analysis
AUD/USD 4-hour price chart analysis

After posting nearly three-week highs, the AUD/USD price has started retreating. However, the volume does not support the retreat, and the deviance suggests a buying opportunity on a retracement towards the mid-0.7300 area. However, the further decline may plunge to the swing lows of 0.7300 handle. On the upside, the immediate hurdle is today’s high near 0.7375 ahead of the 0.7400 handle. The average daily range is 28% so far. Thus, there’s plenty of room available for the day’s trendy action on either side.

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