Ultimate magazine theme for WordPress.

US dollar price forecast 30 June 2021 | EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDNZD, GBPNOK and GBPSEK Fundamental analysis


Someone goes on vacation in the middle of summer, while others, on the contrary, anticipate serious movements amid a busy economic and political calendar and a decrease in liquidity. Let’s discuss the market outlook and make up a trading plan for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDNZD, GBPNOK, and GBPSEK

Monthly G10 currencies fundamental forecast

The OPEC summit, the US employment data, the discussion of Joe Biden’s new fiscal stimulus by the US Congress, talks about inflation, as well as the ECB and Fed meetings will affect financial markets in July. Given the traditional liquidity squeeze due to the holiday season, mid-summer is going to be very hot. Can the seasonal factor help in the formation of investment strategies?

The Swedish and Norwegian krone are among the G10 leaders in July. From 1975 to 2020, these two currencies strengthened against the US dollar in 26 and 25 out of 46 cases, respectively. In contrast, the Canadian and Australian dollars, as well as the British pound in mid-summer, are among the outsiders. Given the market’s focus on monetary policy, the loonie and sterling’s weak positions look surprising. However, they will not be unprofitable in July, even taking into account the statistics.

Rise-fall periods


Source: BoE, LiteForex calculations.

Based on such a parameter as the median, Scandinavian currencies are among the favorites. At the same time, the averages warn that trading the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the New Zealand dollar in the middle of summer can be very risky.

Averages and medians


Source: BoE, LiteForex calculations.

This assumption is supported by G10 currencies’ dynamics in favorable or unfavorable periods. At the time of closures in the green zone, the Swiss franc added 3% on average, the sterling and the euro added 2.6% each. On the contrary, trading the Canadian dollar in July can be boring.

Price dynamics during rise-fall periods

Source: BoE, LiteForex calculations.

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDNZD, GBPNOK, and GBPSEK trading plan for a month

In my opinion, one should not get carried away with selling the loonie, which is supported by strong oil and the Bank of Canada. The BoC, in turn, is ready to normalize monetary policy before the Fed. Even if OPEC+ increases production more than expected at the July 1 summit, this will perceive investors that the organization is confident about the oil market’s bright future. But the emphasis of the central banks of Norway and Sweden on the withdrawal of monetary stimulus may serve as the reason for the GBPNOK and GBPSEK sales.

The AUD’s position is insecure due to lockdowns and tensions with China. Moreover, the RBA, worried about low inflation, is not going to normalize monetary policy. On the contrary, the New Zealand central bank may improve its position due to fears about the overheating of the real estate market in the country. These factors make it possible to sell AUDNZD.

In case of publication of strong US employment data and further inflation acceleration, hawkish sentiments at the FOMC meeting on July 27-28 are likely to intensify, which will have a positive effect on the US dollar. The rise in the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is a reason to buy USDJPY. Christine Lagarde’s dovish statements at a press conference after the ECB meeting on July 21-22 are a signal to sell EURUSD. GBPUSD short trades will become relevant if the Brexit issue returns to the markets.


Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

Rate this article:

{{value}} ( {{count}} {{title}} )


Source link

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.