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Brace for US nonfarm payrolls 


  • The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1878 level while traders await US nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Spanish Unemployment Change in August dropped to-82.6K against the forecasted-164.7K. 
  • Forex trading market participants may look for a buy trade above 1.1861 with an initial target of $1.1888 and $1.1931 levels.

The EUR/USD closed at $1.1873 after placing a high of $1.1877 and a low of $1.1834. The EUR/USD currency pair rose for the 5th consecutive session on Thursday and reached its one-month highest level amid the ongoing weakness in the US dollar. The primary focus remains on the US Nonfarm Payrolls that will come out during the US session today.

 

If you are interested in trading EUR/USD with forex robots, check out our guide.

Weaker Dollar Continues To Underpin EUR/USD

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, fell to 92.21. It weighed on the greenback. Moreover, the US Treasury yields on the benchmark 10-year note also declined on Thursday. It fell to 1.28%, putting pressure on the US dollar and pushing the EUR/USD currency pair higher.

After last week’s remarks by Fed chair Jerome Powell, the US dollar was already under pressure. This week the pressure added up with the wait for the release of NFP data. Powell did not provide any timeline for the highly anticipated tapering of monetary stimulus. As a result, it added negative pressure on the US dollar. The NFP data is scheduled to be released on Friday. It’s expected to bring further clarity on a tapering decision by the Federal Reserve.

Quick Economic Events Review

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change in August dropped to-82.6K against the forecasted-164.7K. It weighed on the Euro and further capped gains in the EUR/USD pair. At 14:00 GMT, the PPI from July surged to 2.3% against the anticipated 1.3% and supported the Euro.

From the US side, at 16:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year declined to-86.4% in August from the previous-92.8%. At 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 340K against the anticipated 342K, limiting the rising prices of the EUR/USD pair.

 The Revised Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter also declined to 2.1% against an estimated 2.4%, supporting the US dollar. The Revised Unit Labor Costs for the quarter advanced to 1.3% in August against the projected 1.0% and supported the US dollar, which limited the gains in the EUR/USD currency pair. The Trade Balance from July remained flat with expectations of-70.1B. At 19:00 GMT, the Factory Orders from July came in line with expectations of 0.4%.

World Health Organization (WHO) Warning Triggers Risk-off Sentiment

Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a spike in coronavirus infections. Moreover, a slump in vaccination uptake is holding back the efforts of Europe to curb the pandemic. The WHO’s European director, Hans Kluge, said that a recent surge in infection cases along with the deaths was deeply worrying. 

He blamed summer travel, the easing of restrictions, and the more infectious Delta variant for the coronavirus situation in Europe. This news should have had a negative impression on the EUR/USD currency pair. However, the pair remained on upward momentum as investors were more focused on the weakness of the US dollar than elsewhere.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Data in Focus 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to report Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, and Unemployment Rate data during the New York session. 

Economists expect a favorable unemployment rate as it’s expected to drop from 5.4% to 5.2%. However, the average hourly earnings and nonfarm payrolls data can underperform this month. 

Speaking of the employment report from Automatic Data Processing, Inc., the figures dropped in August to 374K against the forecasted 640K. The ADP National Employment Report showed that US private employers hired far fewer workers than anticipated in August. However, an uptick in manufacturing activity in the United States helped the greenback gather strength. 

The ADA nonfarm is positively correlated with the US nonfarm payroll data. Thus, the negative data is boosting the bullish bias for gold.

US Nonfarm Payrolls
EUR/USD 4-Hour Timeframe

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1845 1.1888

1.1818 1.1904

1.1802 1.1931

Pivot Point: 1.1861

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: Brace for US nonfarm payrolls 

The EUR/USD is trading sharply bullish above the 1.1861support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the violation of the double top pattern is now working as a support for the EUR/USD pair. The closing of candles above this level could drive an additional bullish trend until the 1.1888 resistance level. The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1878 level while traders await US nonfarm payrolls Bureau of Labor StatisticsOn the bearish side, the breakout of the 1.1861 support level could lead the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1845 and 1.1802 levels.

The 50 days EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) is held at 1.1845. Thus, it’s supporting a bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair. On the flip side, the oscillator indicator Stochastic RSI holds in a buy zone, demonstrating a buying trend. Therefore, Forex trading market participants may look for a buy trade above 1.1861 with an initial target of $1.1888 and $1.1931 levels. Alternatively, sell trades can be taken below the $1.1860 level to target $ 1.1795. All the best!

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