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EUR/USD Outlook Positive amid ECB, Looking at 1.19 Ahead of US NFP


  • EUR/USD bulls may aim for 1.1900 and above.
  • ECB is expected to reduce its weekly asset purchase program.
  • US NFP report is likely to show the decline in jobs.
  • A rise in Coronavirus and political jitters may pause the rally.

The EUR/USD outlook is bullish, aiming for 1.1900 as we are heading towards the US NFP data release. In addition, a weaker Greenback helps the Euro buyers.

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1878, up 0.03% at the time of writing on Friday.

The EUR/USD bulls are taking a breather near a 1-month high of around 1.1880 despite remaining on track for Friday’s European session for six straight trading days.

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The major currency pair is still at the top with the technical breakout and increased optimism about the delayed Federal Reserve tightening. Meanwhile, bulls are being investigated in advance of major nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data, along with Covid and geopolitical jitters. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) may well taper its weekly bond purchase program, which could benefit pair buyers.

Yesterday’s record high producer price index (PPI) for June, released by the Eurozone, sparked speculation that the ECB may withdraw some of the easy money it offered during the pandemic. ECB should scale down purchases on September 9 from its pandemic of € 1.85 trillion, as the Eurozone economy is recovering as a whole thanks to vaccination campaigns and inflation hitting a decade high.

Alternatively, initial jobless claims and permanent consensus claims decreased over the past week, as did the average four-week number of initial jobless claims, which decreased from 366.75k to 355k. Before that, both the ADP employment change and the US Manufacturing PMI from the ISM indicated job losses in the US and the need for further loose monetary policy.

In Australia and New Zealand, mixed Coronavirus data are also proving challenging to traders. In New Zealand, fewer than a dozen cases have been reported. At the same time, Australia updates a record number of infections, and the UK is experiencing new multi-day highs, suggesting questionable COVID-19 conditions.

Furthermore, Yoshihide Sugi’s resignation talks and the UK’s fight over a possible virus-induced lockdown may deteriorate current risk appetites and hamper the EUR/USD bulls. Despite a slightly positive Wall Street index closes and a drop in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 1 basis point (bps) at the time of publication, daily S&P 500 futures remain sluggish.

EUR/USD traders will be watching the August US NFP for fresh momentum in the coming days, which is expected to reach 750,000 versus 943,000 previously. Additionally, the Eurozone’s retail sales and the ISM index of business activity in the US services for July and August will be important, which are expected in this order: 4.8% versus 5.0% of the previous values 61.5 versus 64, 1, respectively.

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EUR/USD price technical outlook: Looking to capture swing highs

EUR/USD 4-hour chart outlook
EUR/USD 4-hour chart outlook

The EUR/USD pair is trading higher on the day, aiming to test the 1.1900-10 supply area. The pair has completed a 28% average daily ran so far, and further gains are on the cards. The price is now consolidation yesterday’s gains while volume is quite low. However, the previous volume supports bulls. On the downside, the pair may find support at 1.1850 ahead of 1.1800.

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